It’s a huge Big 12 matchup the day after Thanksgiving when the 15th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones visit Austin to face the 20th-ranked Texas Longhorns. The Cyclones (6-2) run a balanced offense that counts equally on quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall, while the Longhorns (5-2) pin their hopes on senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Both teams come in on three-game winning streaks, and both offenses are averaging 437 yards per game. Texas is 14-3 in the all-time series, but Iowa State won 23-21 in Ames last season.
Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for noon ET on Friday. The Cyclones are one-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Iowa State odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before making any Iowa State vs. Texas picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also a sizzling 44-23 on all top-rated picks through 12 weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $1,200 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Iowa State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Iowa State vs. Texas:
Texas vs. Iowa State: Longhorns -1.5Texas vs. Iowa State over-under: 56.5Texas vs. Iowa State money line: Cyclones +100, Longhorns -120ISU: RB Breece Hall has scored at least two TDs in six of the eight games.TEX: RB Bijan Robinson has 227 yards (6.1 per carry) over the last three games. Why Iowa State can cover
Iowa State is 13-7 against the spread against ranked opponents since Matt Campbell took over as coach in 2016, and the duo of Purdy and Hall has been electric. Hall leads the nation in rushing with 1,169 yards, averaging 6.5 per carry, and has 16 total TDs. Purdy has thrown for 1,713 yards and 13 TDs and has rushed for 253 and three more scores. He relies heavily on receiver Xavier Hutchinson (41 catches for 518 yards) and tight end Charlie Kolar (25 for 286).
The Cyclones are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game, and the defense pitched a shutout in a rout of Kansas State last week. The Wildcats had 149 total yards, and the Cyclones had 10 tackles for loss and three takeaways. End Will McDonald had a sack to give him 6.5 for the season and linebacker Mike Rose had an interception to give him four. Rose is the leader of the defense with a team-high 63 tackles.
Why Texas can cover
Texas is 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five after scoring fewer than 20 in its previous game, and the Longhorns have scored 27 or more in every other game. They average 40.4 points, and Ehlinger has thrown for 1,834 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also is the team’s leading rusher with 323 yards and seven scores. The Cyclones are 1-5 on the road as a ranked team, and Ehlinger should find some holes in a defense that allows almost 230 passing yards per game.
The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in the previous game. They face a tall task against Hall, but they rank 28th against the run, allowing 118.6 yards per game. They have playmakers at linebacker with top tacklers Joseph Ossai (48) and Juwan Mitchell (46), and 350-pound tackle Keondre Coburn should be back from an ankle injury to hold down the middle. Ossai has four sacks and has forced three fumbles.
How to make Texas vs. Iowa State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the model suggesting Hall won’t crack 100 yards and Ehlinger will face pressure from the Cyclones defense. It also says one side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Iowa State vs. Texas? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Iowa State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.