Quarterback Drew Lock will try to prove last week’s performance was no fluke when the Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. Lock had a career-high four touchdown passes and broke a string of seven straight starts with an interception in a 32-27 victory against Carolina. The Broncos (5-8) are finally healthy, but they face a Bills (10-3) team out to prove it belongs in the conversation with the AFC’s top teams.
Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. William Hill Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Broncos odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 49. Before making any Broncos vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 15 on an incredible 118-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Broncos. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL betting odds from William Hill and the latest trends for Broncos vs. Bills:
Bills vs. Broncos spread: Buffalo -5.5Bills vs. Broncos over-under: 49Bills vs. Broncos money line: Buffalo -245, Denver +205BUF: QB Josh Allen is averaging 294 yards over his last five gamesDEN: QB Drew Lock has thrown for at least 248 yards in six of his last seven starts
Why the Bills can cover
Allen is having a stellar season, but the defense could be a major factor for the Bills, who are 10-4-2 against the spread in their last 16 road games. Buffalo has 21 takeaways, 11 coming in the last five games, and the Broncos are last in the league with a minus-18 turnover margin. They have given the ball away 29 times, with quarterback Drew Lock throwing 13 interceptions in 10 games. All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White has three interceptions.
Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven Week 15 games, and the defense allowed just 224 yards and had two interceptions last week. Taron Johnson returned one of those for a score, and Allen threw for 238 yards and two TDs.
Allen is having an MVP-caliber year, throwing for 3,641 yards and 28 TDs. Receiver Stefon Diggs is a major part of the NFL’s third-best passing attack (272.8 yards per game) with an NFL-high 100 catches. He had 138 yards last week and has 1,167 this season.
Why the Broncos can cover
The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings, and Denver should find running room against a defense that yields 120 yards per game on the ground. Running backs Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay can both carry the load, and Gordon has 199 rushing yards over the past two games. He is the team’s leading rusher with 753 yards and has scored seven times, while Lindsay has 464 yards on the ground in 10 games.
Last week, Lock used his tight ends more and threw for 280 yards, marking the third time in four games he has topped 250. Top tight end Noah Fant (team-high 44 catches) should be back from an illness, while receivers Tim Patrick (six TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (15.9 yards per catch) can make plays.
How to make Bills vs. Broncos picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, as both quarterbacks are held under 250 passing yards in the simulations. It also says one side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Broncos vs. Bills on Saturday? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.